Retail Sales to Grow About 4 Percent This Year, NRF Says

Washington--The National Retail Federation has released its growth predictions for the year ahead, and they’re slightly higher than last year’s figures.

Overall retail industry sales are expected to increase between 3.8 and 4.4 percent. Included in this number are online and all types of non-store sales, which should see a 10 to 12 percent increase over last year.

Last year, the NRF predicted retail sales would increase between 3.2 and 3.8 percent. While subject to revision, the U.S. Census Bureau’s preliminary analysis of 2017 shows that an increase slightly higher at 3.9 percent over 2016 to $3.53 trillion.

NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay noted that a strong holiday season is one indicator of a positive year ahead.

“A robust holiday season for retail sales is just one of many barometers that points to a consumer who is clearly feeling positive about their financial health,” he said.

“Despite headlines to the contrary, the retail industry is strong, growing and meeting consumer demand with the products they want at the prices they expect and the shopping experience they want to have, online or in store. With consumer confidence high, unemployment low and wages growing, there is every reason to believe that retail sales will be robust throughout the year.”

When National Jeweler spoke with retailers during the holiday season, several thought that a positive economic outlook, due in part to a booming stock market, was responsible for a healthy holiday season.

Last week, however, the stock market showed great volatility, trading “about 20,000 points back and forth in a roughly 2,000-point trading range,” according to an analysis by CNBC. The week was feared to be the worst for the stock market since the 2008 financial crisis, but narrowly avoided it.

Any ongoing volatility in the year ahead is likely to have a negative impact on growth.

But the NRF is also predicting positive gains for unemployment in 2018, another essential aspect of the U.S. economy.

Jobs are expected to increase by 163,000 a month this year, slightly down from last year but in line with labor market growth, and unemployment is predicted to decrease by 3.9 percent by the end of 2018.

NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said: “The underpinnings of the economy are very good and consumer spending is at the center of our outlook. The push and pull of forces both external and internal to the U.S. economy