Strong sales expected for holiday season

New York--Retail sales during the holiday season are expected to be “strong” and could reach $885.7 billion, a 5.7 percent increase year-over-year, according to market research company Emarketer. 

It’s an upward adjustment from the 3 percent growth rate predicted earlier this year, as well as the highest forecast since the 6.3 percent sales increase projected for 2011.

“Retail sales in November and December 2015 are expected to show a healthy increase over what was experienced during the same period in 2014,” Emarketer analyst Monica Peart said, adding that the expectation is driven by increases in real income from wages and further decreases in unemployment.

E-commerce holiday season sales in the U.S. have a forecasted growth of 13.9 percent, below the 14.4 percent growth seen in 2014. Still, Emarketer said the segment will play an increasingly important role this year as it will account for 9 percent of total retail sales, or $79.4 billion, up from its 8 percent share last year. 

Mobile will play a part in these sales as well. Emarketer expects U.S. mobile retail sales to rise more than 32 percent for the full year 2015, more than double the 14 percent increase forecasted for retail e-commerce sales as a whole, as consumers become more comfortable buying on their phones. What’s more, the company said 25 percent of all e-commerce sales in the U.S. will take place via mobile device by the end of 2016.

Emarketer went on to say this holiday season will be the first “real” test of a new wave of social commerce, as “buy” or “shop now” buttons have been added to Facebook, Pinterest, Instagram, Twitter and YouTube in the past year. 

“As U.S. consumers become more comfortable with conducting a litany of activities with their smartphones, fewer people are putting down the phone to make a purchase using another device,” Peart said. “Consumers are opting to complete their transaction with the same device they began the shopping journey with and that is increasingly with a smartphone.”