NRF predicts 4 percent increase in holiday sales

Washington--The National Retail Federation said Thursday that despite a sluggish and disappointing first half, it still expects retail sales in November and December to increase 4 percent year-over-year to $630.5 billion.

If the NRF’s prediction comes true, it will put this holiday season on par with 2014, when November-December sales also were up 4 percent. In addition, it will make year-over-year sales increases for both years higher than the 10-year average of 3 percent, the NRF said.

Holiday sales this year are expected to represent approximately 19 percent of the retail industry’s annual sales of $3.2 trillion. 

The NRF also is predicting that online sales will increase between 6 and 8 percent to as much as $105 billion.

While the holiday season is looking optimistic for retailers, the organization noted that consumers will continue to be mindful of their spending and that it expects families to spend “prudently and deliberately, though still less constrained than what we saw even two years ago.”

Even with economic indicators improving in many areas, Americans still remain torn between their desire and their ability to spend. Consumers continue to have the economy on their minds, which helps explain the complex retail spending environment right now, the NRF said.

Disruptions from another potential government shutdown in mid-December, slower job creation and income growth also are a few key factors that will be impacting shoppers’ spending in November and December.

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“While confidence data is encouraging, slower job growth in 2015, deflationary retail prices and the mix of consumer spending somewhat shifting toward big-ticket items and services, as well as the wild card in our government spending debates, will all contribute to the slower growth rate of sales expected for the holiday season,” said NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz. “All said, there’s no reason to doubt that we will see solid retail sales growth in the final two months of the year.”

In addition to its 2015 holiday sales prediction, the NRF also said Thursday that retailers are expected to hire between 700,000 and 750,000 seasonal workers for the holidays, in line with last year’s 714,000 new positions.