Final predictions roll in as season winds down

New York--This holiday season is in the homestretch, to be sure. 

There’s only a week to go until Christmas Day and many retailers are banking on the upcoming weekend being big. 

Among the positive indicators are lower gas prices and a better job market, along with the fact that some analysts predict a lot of late spending this year, which is normally the case for jewelers anyway. 

“There is still a lot of strength left in the consumer as we head into the final holiday stretch, and reports suggests many consumers have yet to start buying,” ShopperTrak stated in a report released Wednesday. 

The firm, which tracks foot traffic via devices it has installed in stores around the U.S., said it expects this December to top last year’s $149.3 billion in sales, boosted by the gas prices, better unemployment numbers and improved consumer confidence. 

It notes that this year, the biggest shopping day in sales terms is expected to be Saturday, which is the final Saturday before Christmas, otherwise known as “Super Saturday.” 

 Also remaining are Monday, Dec. 22 and Tuesday, Dec. 23, which ShopperTrak projected as the No. 4 and No. 10 top days for sales this season, respectively. 

Given all of these factors, ShopperTrak is sticking by its initial projection of a 4 percent year-over-year increase in holiday season sales. 

In his December U.S. jewelry sales update, industry analyst Ken Gassman noted the same positive economic indicators as ShopperTrak: lower gas prices and a stronger job market. 

Yet, Gassman, who bases his reports on a combination of public company reports and government data, states that U.S. watch and jewelry sales were “sluggish” in October and have been “weak” since mid-summer, which does not bode well for November and December. 

Preliminary data for November is mixed, with “some merchants reporting solid gains while others have reported a dramatic sales decline.” 

These indicators caused Gassman to slash his holiday sales projection for specialty jewelers from 4 percent to a low-single-digit gain, perhaps not even topping the 2.9 percent increased recorded last year. 

Interestingly, both reports note that foot traffic for mall retailers has not dropped off as sharply as some might believe. 

Gassman said that his firm’s figures indicate that shopper traffic in malls is “good, but not great,” while ShopperTrak said the idea that fewer shoppers are visiting the malls than did just a few