Consumer Confidence Falls in September, Labor Market Worries Persist

New York—U.S. consumer confidence fell in September as consumers continued to express concerns about the job market.

The Conference Board’s monthly consumer confidence index decreased to 98.7 in September from an upwardly revised 105.6 in August.

“Consumer confidence dropped in September to near the bottom of the narrow range that has prevailed over the past two years,” said Dana M. Peterson, chief economist at The Conference Board. 

“September’s decline was the largest since August 2021 and all five components of the index deteriorated. Consumers’ assessments of current business conditions turned negative while views of the current labor market situation softened further. Consumers were also more pessimistic about future labor market conditions and less positive about future business conditions and future income.”

Write-in responses about politics and the November elections remained below 2020 and 2016 levels in September.

Consumers aged 35 to 54 saw the steepest drop in confidence, making the group the least confident on a six-month moving average basis. Those under 35 remained the most confident.

By income group, consumers earning less than $50,000 saw the largest decrease in confidence.  On a six-month moving average basis, consumers earning more than $100,000 remained the most confident.

“The deterioration across the Index’s main components likely reflected consumers’ concerns about the labor market and reactions to fewer hours, slower payroll increases, fewer job openings—even if the labor market remains quite healthy, with low unemployment, few layoffs, and elevated wages,” said Peterson.

The Present Situation Index, which measures consumers’ current view of business and labor market conditions, fell to 124.3 in September from 134.3 in August.

Consumers’ assessments of current business conditions were more negative in September and their view of the labor market weakened.

The Expectations Index, which measures consumers’ outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions in the near future, fell to 81.7 from an upwardly revised 86.3 in August.

It remained above 80, said the Conference Board, noting a reading below 80 normally signals a recession in the near future.

Consumers were less optimistic about business conditions in September, while their outlook on the labor market and their income prospects were also more pessimistic.

They also were less optimistic about their family’s current and future financial situation, a measure not included when calculating the Present Situation and Expectations Index.

The “Consumers’ Perceived Likelihood of a U.S. Recession over the Next 12 Months” metric was higher in September but well below the May 2020 peak. 

“The proportion of consumers anticipating a recession over the next 12 months remained low but there was a slight uptick in the percentage of consumers believing the economy was already in [a] recession,” added Peterson.

Consumer plans to buy big-ticket appliances were mixed, and plans to buy a smartphone or a laptop/PC in the next six months eased.

On a six-month moving average basis, purchasing plans for homes and new cars did improve slightly. 

When consumers were asked about plans to buy more goods or services over the next six months, consumers showed a slightly greater preference for purchasing goods.

There was a new question about services in this month’s survey, which showed consumers were still interested in traveling and dining out in September.

Though consumers were still interested in streaming entertainment at home, interest in going to the movies rose in recent months.

Planned spending for non-discretionary services like health care and utilities was also strong over the next 6 months.