Second report gives reasons to be upbeat

New York--A second report surfaced this week citing positive indicators as the industry heads into the all-important fourth quarter.

On Monday, industry analyst Ken Gassman said in his latest sales report that he is “cautiously optimistic” about the holiday season due to a number of factors, including more positive economic data.

He told National Jeweler on Tuesday that the number that affects shoppers more than anything is unemployment because they have a great fear of losing their job. That, however, continues to trend lower while wages hold, gas prices fall and home prices rise.

The stock market is volatile, Gassman acknowledged, but that’s to be expected given the lack of correction in recent years.

“Unless there is a shock to the system near-term, I think there’s significant pent-up demand, and I think we’ll see it in the 2015 holiday selling season,” he said. “Yes, the year-to-date numbers dismal but I’m bullish on jewelry demand in the fourth quarter.”

On Tuesday, Ernie Blom, president of the World Diamond Federation of Diamond Bourses, expressed similar positivity for the diamond industry heading into the holiday season.

Sales at the recently concluded Hong Kong Gems and Jewellery Fair, a “useful barometer of industry sentiment,” were “solid,” he said, while on the supply-demand side, De Beers and Alrosa both cut prices at their most recent sights and Indian manufacturers have cut back on production.

The lower prices should help diamond manufacturers, which were squeezed in the middle by high rough and falling polished prices, though Blom noted that “I believe we need to see a further reduction in rough prices, but these moves by De Beers and Alrosa are encouraging, and we expect to see the trend repeated at other diamond sales and tenders.”

Meanwhile, the decision by diamantaires to pull back on manufacturing should help put a floor under falling polished prices by reducing the amount of polished diamonds on the market and, possibly, even creating a shortage in some sizes and qualities.

Blom cited generic advertising as another positive heading into the holiday season, mentioning the World Diamond Mark, the not-for-profit initiative the WFDB started in 2012 to stimulate diamond demand worldwide.

De Beers also is doing some generic advertising this year, with the diamond miner and marketer bringing back its “Seize the Day” campaign to stimulate sales in the United States and China specifically. This is in addition to